The launch of The Fantasy Wire has been a ride.

It all started when I dropped the debut “Top 50 WR’s Rankings”. The controversial debates began on r/fantasyfootball. 

That’s why I love fantasy football subreddit. It’s a stew of discussion and I welcome the smoke. RemindMe!

Looking for uninspiring projections that mirror 2018? Go somewhere else. 

If you want to learn a thing-or-two, keep reading.

My goal for this analysis is to inform you about the RB position. T0 prevent you from drafting the next Montee Ball, or Zac Stacy. 2014 was a weird fucking year.

Below I’ve copied my methodology for how I build these rankings.

If you read the WR rankings analysis article, you can skip it. Get right to the meat and potatoes of this article further down.

I have spent the better half of the new year analyzing teams to prepare for the upcoming 2019 season. 

Staff changes, signings, releases, drafts, team schemes -- you name it, there's a good chance I've already taken a peek into it. 

These rankings will change as we inch closer to September. 

But until then, here is where we stand: 

    •    My rankings are based on 0.5 PPR scoring. This is a fine balance between PPR & Standard leagues. 

    •    I've studied all 32 teams offenses from the top (staff/management) down (players) 

With this data, I interpret how offenses will potentially look schematically. I use all this information to predict their offensive performance compared to the prior season(s).  

This allows me to assign contribution volume percentages for each player in that offense. Sound good? Great!

3. Ezekiel Elliot

22. Kenyan Drake

Kenyan Drake was the offseason sleeper pick of the year before the 2018 season. In reality, he finished rightfully where he should have as the RB21. In fact, he struggled to be the dynamic back many pundits were anticipating. He was unable to beat out 57-year-old Frank Gore (love ya bud) for the starting role and was out-touched by the iconic veteran. It will be interesting what newly hired head coach Brian Flores can do for this team, the former Patriots defensive coordinator would be wise to further utilize Kenyan Drakes receiving chops in the Miami offense. The hype for Drake has certainly cooled off for the 2019 season. However, with Gore gone, the depth behind Drake is nothing noteworthy. He presents an upside to get a considerable amount of looks in this unproductive offense.

23. Austin Ekeler

The Chargers’ Austin Ekeler made a name for himself during his second year in the league last year. Ekeler is a shifty, nimble RB who is a valuable asset in the passing game. His ability to run routes and be a marquee target and not just a dump off back. There’s no denying Melvin Gordon runs the show as he is the superior pure rusher who also has good receiving abilities. The thing is, he’s got considerable wear on his body and has battled the injury bug before. Ekeler has the upside to finding him seeing an increase in snaps in the likely event Gordon misses a few games this year. 

24. Josh Jacobs

A great receiver with solid rushing ability. He's an all-around back who can thrive in a modern day offense. Josh Jacobs is entering his rookie season with the Oakland Raiders and has a great opportunity to become a bell cow. If the Raiders were smart they would utilize Jacobs in a similar way the Saints utilize Kamara in their offense. He does find himself in an offense that features Doug Martin, and Jalen Richard. I believe he has the skillset to beat out these backs but this is his job to earn, not lose. However, the Raiders o-line is far from what it once was in 2014. Tom Cable is also the offensive line coach. Tom. Cable. Yuck.

25. James White

Despite posting RB7 numbers last year in PPR formats, James White has earned little respect as he is currently the 27th picked RB in drafts so far. Crazy. My biggest concern is the crowded backfield that is the New England Patriots. And we all know Bill Belichick certainly doesn’t care about your fantasy team. Between Michel, White and now Damien Harris, it’s hard to predict what this offense will look like. I have a hunch once preseason rolls around and we get a better understanding of team roles, James White is going to shoot up this list. After all, Brady threw 570 pass attempts last season – 123 of those were targeted to White. Second highest targets to a RB.

26. Tarik Cohen

Cohen is a ball of speed and agility. The type of running back who thrives as a pass catcher and has the necessary tools to be an adequate change of pace back. Last year he was able to put up respectable numbers that landed him in the top 20. However there has been a considerable shakeup to this RB stable and it’s hard to predict how large of a role rookie, David Montgomery will eat into his snaps.

27. Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram left the Saints for a likely shot as the starting running back in Baltimore. Ingram is a solid RB who can do a bit of everything. He’ll take it inside on a power run, off tackle, catch passes out the backfield, and be an aggressive pass blocker on third down. For this reason, he should see plenty of time on the field in a Ravens offense that is arguably the most run-oriented in the league. They also boast a premier defense that will allow them to control the pace of most of their games. He is a fringe RB2 player who offers a terrific floor as a flex option.

28. David Montgomery

Drafted the Bears in the third round, Montgomery has a shot at earning some consistent snaps on the offense. Montgomery has a knack for remaining upright on balance. He has great size for a RB: 5’10, 222lbs. Montgomery’s role in this offense will greatly depend on his ability as a rusher. His teammate, Tarik Cohen has assumed himself the pass-catching role who also can tote the rock from time to time. While you should be confident that he can be a solid piece to your fantasy team, I wouldn’t get too carried away with his upside. They also signed former Seahawk, Mike Davis to the team. Davis quietly put up some pretty efficient numbers last year. 514 yards on the ground, 4.6 YPC, 34 catches, and 214 yards. I expect him to get a sliver of the pie as well.

29. Tevin Coleman

The former Falcon has now found his home in a crowded 49ers offense that features Jerick McKinnon, and Matt Breida. Tevin Coleman is a reliable running back who can be a very valuable asset to a teams pass offense. With Shanahan's usage of RB's, I anticipate that Coleman will have the highest floor out of the other two, which makes him the safest pick. With that being said, unless one of them can prove to be the clearly dominant rusher, I likely see this as a committee where they ride the hot hand. Which is extremely frustrating for fantasy owners. 

30. Jordan Howard

Once an RB1 back in 2016. Howard has failed to reproduce those numbers. Howard finished as the RB20 last year as many were hoping for a top 15 finish. He now leaves Chicago and enters a murky backfield in Philadelphia Eagles. While he brings a physical run style to an offense that could certainly use it, that committee is one I do not want to touch. Unless Howard can outshine the competition and assume a +60% share of the Eagles backfield, I wouldn’t get too excited. 

31. Sony Michel

After playing 13 games last year in his Rookie season, Michel finished just outside of the top 24 out of RB’s. New England is notorious for fantasy football hell when it comes to RB’s but some people are optimistic that he can become the guy. He’s currently being drafted as the RB25 this year, which seems appropriate. He has great potential to shoot up the board if he assumes a larger role but with a crowded backfield consisting of pass-catching specialist James White, Damien Harris (rookie), and Rex Burkhead, it’s hard to predict how this RB stable will be divided up.

32. Latavius Murray

Latavius has moved on to assume the role in the Saints that was left by Mark Ingram. I think he has a solid ability to contribute in both the run and pass game. As a flex play, he offers a safe floor due to the Saints increasingly leaning into the run as Brees gets older. Besides, the Saints have a history of utilizing both Kamara and Ingram in the past. He finished as the RB 32 last season and it’s safe to assume he sees similar production as the snaps left by Ingram are nearly identical to his usage last year in Minnesota. 

33. Lamar Miller

It isn’t sexy, but he gets the job done. Miller at a point in time was mid-tier RB1. It’s clear that those glory days are over but don’t get it twisted, he still is fantasy relevant. He’s finished 15-20 in the past 3 years straight. Last year he nearly ran for 1000 yards with a 4.6 YPC average. While he isn’t going to win you any given week, he’ll get you 8-12 points per game like clockwork. One thing to keep an eye on though is his teammate, 2nd year back D’Onta Foreman. Foreman has shown glimpses of being a physical, bruising RB that I think would compliment the high powered passing game so well. 

34. Kareem Hunt

The former Chiefs, now Browns RB is really talented and would likely be an RB1 if it weren’t for his off the field issue. For that reason, I didn’t feel like ranking him since we have yet to hear about his looming suspension. If he is to get 8-10 games it will be hard justifying drafting him much earlier. He’s a perfect stash player to come in and help you win the playoffs. 

35. Darrell Henderson

The Rams invested in a handcuff to Todd Gurley in this year's draft. Drafted in the 3rd round, Darrell Henderson will act as a release valve for Todd Gurley. Some people really think that Gurley is going to wind up in a committee with Henderson which I think is ridiculous. Gurley is still the cog in that offense. Therefore an 80-20 split between the two is more likely than not. Gurley has had a history with knee issues and has arthritis developing in the knee. Henderson’s biggest upside is Gurley's potential injury/setbacks with that knee.

36. Jerick McKinnon

McKinnon was signed by the 49ers in 2018 on a 4 year, 30 million dollar deal. There was a lot of fantasy buzz around his opportunity to lead the 49ers backfield last season until a season-ending ACL injury derailed his season before it started. Now he has been thrust into a competitive backfield of adequate running backs that will all be vying for snaps. Between McKinnon, Breida, and newly signed Tevin Coleman (and receiving FB Juszczyk). This team is lining up to be an effective rushing attack, by all RB’s. With that being said, the 49ers have a creative coach in Kyle Shanahan and an injury to a RB in this stable could really open things up for a RB to become fantasy relevant. But until we see more with how this offense is going to operate, I’d advise staying away. 

37. Derrius Guice

Guice had promise going into his rookie year last year as a second round pick. That is until an injury forced him to miss the entire year. He now finds himself in a crowded backfield amongst the Redskins. When I watch his tape I like what I see. While he isn’t the fastest back, his ability to reach top gear quickly is impressive. Another thing that stands out is his contact balance. He is good at staying upright on contact. If the Redskins were smart they would try to get him more involved in their offense sooner rather than later. However, Peterson’s assertiveness to remain the starter in Washington poses a threat.

38. Dion Lewis

Dion Lewis is the backup to Titans RB Derrick Henry. Lewis is a savvy pass catcher with ok rushing abilities. I believe Dion Lewis’ role will continue to be phased out as the Titans are all in on Derrick Henry. However, we know that Henry has gone cold in seasons past. Keep an eye out for Lewis to provide some fantasy relevance here and there.

39. Ronald Jones

The other half of the porous Buccanneers RB stable. Both he and Barber struggled mightily last season. But in Jones’ defense, he was in his first year. With that being said, he’s going to have to show a lot more than he did in last years tape to provide any sort of fantasy relevance. Ronald Jones has the athleticism to become an adequate back.  

40. Adrian Peterson

Father Time has caught up to Adrian Peterson many seasons ago. Yet, he still proves to be a more than serviceable back in the NFL. Fresh off of a 1000 yard season, at 33. Peterson is the likely candidate to remain the starter in this Washington offense. I do feel his upside is limited as his body is no longer fit to sustain a 16 game season. His performances last year were streaky and he saw a noticeable drop-off in production as November and December rolled around.

41. Darwin Thompson

Darwin Thompson was drafted this year by the Chiefs. Most people are aware of the Damien Williams hype and may know that Carlos Hyde is the backup. But Darwin Thompson is a dark horse candidate this year. While I do trust the history of the Chiefs consistently manufacturing fantasy friendly RB’s, I’m not sold that it’s Damien Williams. Williams had his shot to earn the starting role and was unable to beat our former Chiefs Spencer Ware and Dolphins Kenyan Drake. Both of whom have gone on to new teams and are widely unknown. We know that while Hyde can be serviceable, that’s his ceiling. Darwin Thompson is a small, electric back who’s best trait is his ability to make defenders miss.  For a guy his size, he holds up surprisingly well with contact. He does a good job bouncing off defenders and slipping tackles. He is a priority hand-cuff this year.

42. Ryquell Armstead

If Jaguars’ Leonard Fournette goes down (and that's early and often) you are going to want to handcuff his backup. In this case, Ryquell Armstead is a comparable mold of Fournette. Standing at 5’11, 220 lbs. Armstead is a player who isn’t shy to lower his pads, square up a defender and impose his will a little. He’s more of a straight line runner who isn’t going to freeball it in the backfield. He’s a point A to B guy and doesn’t offer that much skill in the open space. But he’s someone who can do a good job filling in for a team that’s looking to run tough.

43. Devin Singletary

Buffalo is another backfield I dare not to touch. They are looking to take a committee approach between LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, newly signed T.J Yeldon, and himself. Out of the bunch, the rookie presents the greatest upside as we already know what we can expect out of the other 3 backs in this backfield, mediocrity. Singletary’s combine numbers do not stand out at all, but the tape says otherwise. They call him the “motor” for a reason. He has a knack for shedding blocks and putting in high effort on any play. Two traits that could make him a sneaky sleeper in this lackluster offense.

44. Alexander Mattison

The fact Mattison is going to be backing up Dalvin Cook in Minnesota should entice you. The RB who can just never seem to stay healthy. Mattison is a great late round handcuff for your fantasy team. For a 220lb he possesses a blend of burst and power. I also like his vision to cut outside and redirect his run path and find open grass. He’s not a home run hitter by any stretch of the imagination but he can consistently deliver you some positive yardage.

45. LeSean McCoy

Now that McCoy is on the other side of 30, coupled with a crowded Bills RB stable that features younger talent, I’m not a fan of him this upcoming season. There are many other wildcard players you can acquire in the late rounds who have far higher ceilings than McCoy. He’s a stash at this point unless the RB situation changes in Buffalo.

46. Matt Breida

Breida seems like the forgotten back out of San Fran this year. While their team will have 2 new running backs who will assume the lead on the pecking order (McKinnon + Coleman), he quietly averaged 5.4 YPC in 2018 off of 153 totes. An injury to this backfield and his steady play last year should net him a piece, albeit small, of the RB pie in 49er country.

47. Jaylen Samuels

Jaylen Samuels will be backing up James Connor in Pittsburgh. The Steelers boast one of the best offensive lines in the game and their run game is a threat. If Connor were to go down, Samuels would a lot of opportunities to show some off the good speed he has for his size (6'0 228lbs).

48. Nyheim Hines

Last year Hines surrendered as the backup to Marlon Mack. However, he still put up some decent numbers. Finishing 33rd last year. He was targeted by Andrew Luck 81 times. I anticipate his role to potentially take a slight dip due to Marlon Mack’s rise, but Hines will still have a role in this offense.

49. Chris Thompson

This Redskins RB stable is a nightmare. 2nd year RB Guice is returning after missing his rookie campaign to injury, Adrian Peterson had a 1000 yard season but is another year older (34) and his production in the second half of last year was noticeably lower. While I have no idea who will be toting the rock in Washington (I’d guess Guice) Chris Thompsons role as a pass catching/third-down back is fairly secure. Neither AP or Guice are pass catching receivers. While Thompson had his own share of injuries (missed 6 games) he was the 27th (2017) and 33rd(2018) RB.

50. Ito Smith

Ito Smith filled in adequately for the Falcons last year when Devonta Freeman went down. I am confident he will assume a similar role as a change of pace receiving back who is capable of being a pass target. If Devonta were to get hurt again this year, he would assume the starting role as opposed to playing the backup to Tevin Coleman in 2018.

BONUS (51). Peyton Barber

Peyton Barber had an opportunity, alongside Ronald Jones to make something of this porous rushing attack in Tampa and failed to do so. There isn’t much talent to get excited about when it comes to his skill. He’s a thicker back coming in at 228lbs but lacks the power to be a power back. His only real upside is that there are very few options in Tampa Bay this year. As the primary starter, he finished as the RB27. I would advise avoiding Barber this year in fantasy unless you plan on having him as an emergency backup RB. I believe Ronald Jones, who also struggled mightily last year has a better shot at being somewhat relevant in fantasy.

BONUS (52). D’Onta Foreman

Foreman is looking to bounce back from an Achilles injury that he suffered last year. He will be the backup to the steady-even runningback, Lamar Miller in Houston. Should Lamar show a misstep in his game as he approaches 29, D'Onta could potentially turn this into a committee. I'd like to monitor Foreman more as we move into the preseason.