(2019) Top 25 Fantasy Football Quarterback rankings
With less than a month to go, the fantasy football world is ramping up for the 2019 season. mock draft mode is in full-effect, bold predictions are being made, and knee-jerk reactions to week 1 of the preseason are shaking up the player rankings. in this analysis, i will be looking into the quarterbacks of 2019. i have combed through their 2018 stats, watched their film, analyzed their respective teams for the upcoming season, and put together some likely stat-line scenarios for all 25 of them. each season, we see about half of fantasy qb's churn out of the top 12 between years. 2019 is not an exception to this rule. without further adieu, enjoy!
= high value pick vs. average draft position (ADP)
TIER 1: QB1 Worthy
Patrick Mahomes [KC]
Since 2002, there hasn't been a QB finish as the QB1 in back-to-back seasons. This honor is held by Dante Culpepper, who was the reigning fantasy QB champion for three straight seasons! Patrick Mahomes could very well break this streak, but we've seen some historically great QB seasons over the last decade that failed to accomplish this feat. There is no denying Mahomes' uber-talented arm and ability to control the game. He's already shown in his early career that he can make all the throws necessary to be a big time quarterback in the NFL. He also has the privilege of being coached up by the always fantasy friendly head coach, Andy Reid. Mahomes will have plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. With all that to say, opposing defenses will now have a season worth of tape to clue in on their tendencies. He should rightfully be taken as the top QB off the board, except you're paying a premium given his 2nd round ADP.
Aaron Rodgers [GB]
Out of all the quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers has the highest upside out of all QBs this year to reclaim the QB1 spot. His injury history would make him a risky choice as the QB1 compared to Mahomes, but his fantasy production in the past is undeniable. Don't forget that Mahomes is going 26 spots sooner than Rodgers in fantasy drafts. With a new offensive regime in town, Aaron Rodgers ceiling could be historic this year. No longer will he be trying to make the predictable, archaic offense of former head coach, Mike McCarthy, work. An offense that was once dominant circa 2010. Rodgers also played 16 games with a tibial plateau fracture and a sprained MCL in his left knee that he sustained during the season opener. The receiving talent outside of Davante Adams still remains both an unknown and concern. I'm optimistic that LaFleur can build an offense around the strengths of his players. Something McCarthy failed to do. Despite all the offensive turmoil, Rodgers managed to put together QB7 numbers in 2018.
Tier 2: QB1 Dark-Horse(s)
Matt Ryan [ATL] Ryan quietly put up terrific numbers last year, earning him QB2 in fantasy numbers. Going just shy of 5000 yards with 35 TDs and 7 interceptions. Finishing 3rd, 3rd, 4th in passing yards, touchdowns and completion percentage. I think Ryan is poised for another elite season where he could potentially put up his most efficient numbers yet. However, I would not be surprised if we saw his attempts volume to take a slight dip as last season was the perfect storm. Between their injury ravaged defense, and loss of starting RB Devonta Freeman, Matt Ryan threw the ball over 600 times. With that said, the Falcons schedule is crazy good. 13 of their games are going to be played indoors. Need I say more?
DeShaun Watson [HOU]
In 2018 we finally saw the type of numbers DeShaun Watson is capable of putting up when playing a full 16 game season. Finishing as the QB4 in 2018. He has the opportunity to be a surprise QB1 one. I love duel threat QBs as it creates a very safe floor. If Watson can remain healthy along with their receiving corp (looking at you Fuller, Coutee) he can build upon his impressive 2018 campaign.
TIER 3: Upper-Echelon
Cam Newton [CAR]
Cam Newton quietly dealt with a lingering shoulder injury last season that stifled his passing volume in 2018. Despite that, he was a fringe QB1 in fantasy last year with little weapons around him. I anticipate Cam Newton to bounce back and improve upon his 3,300 yards, and 24 touchdowns. He is an obvious threat to defenses in the run game which gives him a safe floor week-to-week. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel will be relied on to develop their game as they approach their 2nd and 3rd seasons. Between the those two, TE Greg Olsen, and jack-of-traits Christian McCaffrey, this offense could be promising to put up solid numbers in 2019. Given his 8th round ADP as the QB9, I think he offers good value.
Lamar Jackson [BAL]
First of all, let's chill out on the notion that Lamar Jackson will rush 200+ times this year. I get that he was averaging 20 attempts per game in his 7 game starting stretch that year but it's simply not sustainable in a 16 game period. Michael Vick's historic rushing season saw him take off with it 120+ times. Which I anticipate Lamar Jacksons numbers to be in the ballpark range for 2019. With all that to say, it's not out of the question to think he can't beat the record. Personally, I see him getting around 900 rushing yards, and a dozen touchdowns to go with it. His passing game still needs a ton of work but from what I've seen, he has made slight improvements on his mechanics since 2018. I'd actually be pretty surprised if Jackson exceeds north of 3,000 passing yards. Doesn't matter, with his rushing prowess leading the way, his fantasy relevance is very enticing. Especially as a late round pick up, he's one of my favourite QB's to pull the trigger on if you decide to stream your QB in 2019. Tremendous value vs his ADP.
Russell Wilson [SEA]
Wilson could be higher on this list if he wasn't in a run-heavy offense. Wilson has tremendous ability to extend plays and come up big when it counts. He can be called upon to do it all for your offense which makes him extremely dynamic and valuable in the NFL. The fact that he can get you an additional 300-400 yards on the ground in a given year is also an added bonus to raise his floor. I would never anticipate him to crack into the top 3 of QBs on a given season, but given his ADP as the QB9, he offers good value in the 7th round.
TIER 4: The Young & The Restless
Carson Wentz [PHI]
It wasn't long ago when Carson Wentz was the new poster boy for the NFL. Winning a Superbowl and having what many people thought was the MVP for 2017. In 2018 he battled with injuries and the Eagles offense wasn't quite the same. In 2019 I am confident that Wentz will rebound back to QB1 status and be a viable starting fantasy QB option once again. However, his injury history and run first offense does cap his upside. Currently, Wentz is going as the QB8, and at that cost, you are not getting him at a discount to his value.
Baker Mayfield [CLE]
Everyone is talking about the Browns in 2019. Rightfully so, on paper. They boast a collection of talented players on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. This puts Baker Mayfield in the best situation to succeed in terms of talent. On the other hand, games and stats aren't generated on paper. We are dealing with a team that has yet to accomplish anything on the field and will be face the challenge of building chemistry and playing as a unit. Last year Baker started all 16 games and finished as the QB16. I anticipate that he takes another leap forward, putting him in realm of starting fantasy QBs. But not quite as high as other pundits have been lead to believe. Baker's current QB ADP is 5. In my opinion, you are paying the premium for his ceiling. Where you can get the proven QB's in Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson in the following two rounds after.
Andrew Luck [IND]
Andrew Luck finished as the QB5 in 2018, like Watson, proving the NFL that he could remain healthy and put up elite numbers. Andrew Luck has the tool set to be the best in the game. However, his cryptic injury woes this offseason reaks of 2017. When he was shut down for the entire year. If healthy, I am confident Andrew Luck will be able to continue to improve his numbers in 2019 with their young weapons continue to develop in this offense (Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Eric Ebron, T.Y Hilton) and the addition of some new receivers in 2019 (Parris Campbell, Devin Funchess). Their offensive line is one of the reliable pass blocking units coming into 2019. Keep an eye on his calf injury progress over the next 2 weeks. If he gets the green light you should be happy with Luck leading your fantasy team in 2019. But for now, proceed with caution as this could be 2017 all over again.
Dak Prescott [DAL]
6, 11, 10. These are Dak Prescott's fantasy QB ranks in the past three seasons. If you are not looking to get pretty at QB, Prescott is your man. If you are looking for a consistent, durable, and reliable fringe QB1, look no further. Dak Prescott is your man. Dak Prescott had himself an efficient season last year, finishing with a 68% completion rate, and nearly 3:1 TD:INT ratio. I think Daks ceiling is capped in the 8-12 position due to the offensive approach the Cowboys take. However, if Ezekiel were to hold out and miss time, we would likely see more volume coming out of Dak Prescott.
Jameis Winston [TB]
This could go either way, he could either throw for over 4,000 yards and be a fantasy relevant QB or burn out with the new regime in Tampa Bay. I am optimistic that new head coach (Bruce Arians) will be able to built an offense that utilizes what Jameis is capable of doing well. Bruce Arians is an aggressive playcaller which suits Jameis' style of play. Bruce Arians was a great fit for Carson Palmer during their time in Arizona. Jameis has the offensive weapons around him to put up big numbers (Evans, Godwin and O.J Howard). However, their lackluster rushing attack is going to put a lot of pressure on them to string together steady drives and move the chains through the air. If you decide to wait really late to get a QB with the intention of streaming week-to-week. Jameis is a great toss up QB to get. He could become an exciting, high reward option week-to-week in 2019.
Kirk Cousins [MIN] : Before his lackluster season in 2018, Kirk Cousins went three straight seasons inside the top 8. I believe a lot of the blame fell on Kirk Cousins shoulders last year due to their struggles but a lot of it was misplaced. Cousins finished the season with an impressive 70% completion, 3:1 TD:INT ratio, and nearly 4300 yards through the air. 2018 was arguably his best statistical season. In fact, only 20 points separated him from Drew Brees, the QB8 last season. I expect Cousins to continue to put up more efficient numbers in the air and in the pass game if they can put together a respectable rushing attack with a healthy Dalvin Cook.
Matthew Stafford [DET] : Despite starting all 16 games, Matthew Stafford had arguably his least efficient fantasy football season in his career. Finishing as the QB20. Prior to 2018, Matthew Stafford was riding a three year streak of top 10 finishes in fantasy football. I am optimistic this season that Matthew Stafford can return to form. I believe his skillset is there, as he once put up 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns in a season but his surrounding talent as of late has been less than optimal. In 2019, I really do like what they have built around Stafford. Between Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J Hockenson, and Danny Amendola, they have some nice receiving options. In addition, the Lions are primed for their first 1000 yard RB in what seems like a lifetime. T.J Hockenson is a tenacious blocking TE who will help improve the run game. In addition, their RB, Kerryon Johnson is the real deal. Typically a rushing attack may reek of bad news for a QB from a fantasy perspective but I think in Stafford case it will be the opposite. Forcing defenses to respect the run game will pay dividends on Stafford having a rebound season and putting up efficient numbers.
TIER 5: Steady Vets & The Unknowns
Drew Brees [NO]: Was once a fantasy stud. However, you would be doing your team a disservice if you felt that Brews is still top 3-5 QB material in fantasy football. With father time catching up, we have seen a steady decline in the Saints pass attempts over the past few years. Partly to conserve the health of
Derek Carr [OAK] : Derek Carr started his career off on the right foot, posting 81 TDs to just 31 INT in the first three seasons. The Raiders had double 1,000 yard receivers in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Then in his last two seasons, the Raiders, and Derek Carr took three steps back. Now they find themselves back to square one in their rebuild. With all that to say, Derek Carr has himself a trio of talented weapons in do-it-all RB Josh Jacobs, field stretching WR Tyrell Williams, and the ever polarizing Antonio Brown. His current ADP as QB24 makes him tremendously valuable. You can get him in the final rounds of your draft with the potential to finish as a low tier QB1.
Kyler Murray [ARI]: Kyler Murray is certainly a wildcard. While I beleive the air raid offense is a good fit for Kyler, he is still taking over a team that is still far from contending, has a rookie head coach and finds themselves in a tough NFC West division. He's currently being drafted as a low tier QB1. Given his ADP, you are paying a premium for his realistic rookie season. I think there are other valuable QBs to be had instead if you are looking for a sneaky good QB in 2019.
Philip Rivers [LAC]: A steady fantasy QB who will still likely finish in the top 12 this year due to injuries. I do think the players ahead of him presents higher upside to crack into the top 8 in 2019.
Ben Roethlisberger [PIT]: Last season Roethlisberger put on a passing clinic, amassing over 5,100 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 675 attempts! This earned him the QB3 rank at the end of 2018. Now you may wonder why so low for 2019? First of all, he has lost arguably the best WR in the league in Antonio Brown. His 675 pass attempts was a league high, and exceeded his previous record high attempts by 67 (608) in 2014. Furthermore, they had also been without Lev'eon Bell and were working in his replacement, James Connor who has suffered from his own history of notable injuries. To me, this volume simply won't be matched as they rely more on the run game in 2019. I think their backup RB Jaylen Samuels will have a notable role carved out for himself in this offense, don't be surprised if he takes ~100 touches himself. Because of these factors, I expect Roethlisberger to fall back to his fantasy production norm as a fringe QB1 option.
Jared Goff [LAR]: Goff finished the year as the QB7. Posting over 4,000 yards in the second best offense on the year. It wasn't until the Superbowl where Goff and co. were absolutely shut down in one of the least memorable Superbowl in recent years. I am optimistic the Rams can continue to run a high scoring offense, but they certainly got exposed last year. A lot of their success will be dependent on Goff taking another step in 2019. He's a fringe starting QB for me in 2019.
Tom Brady [NE]: The Josh Gordon return is a promising piece to an offense that will be without TE Rob Gronkowski in 2019. As legendary as Tom Brady is, there are other more viable QB options that have higher upside in pass oriented offenses. The Patriots were one of the heaviest rushing attacks in 2018, I see this trend continuing in 2019.
Jimmy Garoppolo [SF]: The verdict is still out on the Tom Brady disciple. In New England, he looked sharp. In San Francisco, his body of work before his season ending injury is too small of a sample size. And that sample size is uninspiring, along with the 5 straight interceptions he threw in practice last week. He could very well end up being the fantasy darling out of QB's. So if I am entering a draft with the notion of not grabbing a top 5 QB talent, Jimmy GQ presents a low risk option given his ADP as QB19. If he doesn't work out, drop him and move on to the next streaming option. He's got some nifty weapons around him alongside a crafty, offensive minded coach in Kyle Shanahan.
TIER 6: Waiver Wire Warriors
Mitch Trubisky [CHI]
Marcus Mariota [TEN]
Sam Darnold [NYJ]